Well, rats! 
I haven’t played much 4th edition, but even back in 2nd orcs do tend to look scary on paper. They then prove to be unwieldy and predictable enough to counter.
Which would be in theme IMO, as long as they’re not underpowered.
What’s interesting to me is that nightstalkers are at the bottom again.
Also Undead didn’t even show, despite the list looking good IMO.
Do you think the data shows a problem with the Armies of Darkness?
It’s still hard to say. We probably need 6-9 months for a meta/counter-meta to settle out. People are still exploring, and we have a lot of people chasing a lot of things that all look good on paper but may need help on the table. EoD looks to be in a rough spot for sure, but it’s possible there’s a dominant build that may take time for people to find. Ratkin are clearly in a great spot. Beyond those two, I’m still a little non-commital because we probably have people doing 3e builds and playstyle with 4e rules–so it’ll take time to learn new habits and settle in.
Some slightly more well-thought-out thoughts: Kings of War 4E Meta Check: Are Ratkin Actually Broken? – Data & Dice
I’m sorry but I’m a bit obtuse as to how these sources function. Where can I find the lists that were played? Thanks!
Adepticon lists are here
@Cartwright might be good to have the links to lists linked in the articles in case the event isn’t in the Companion
Re Nightstalkers and poor success rate.
Wonder if their army wide stealthy is now less of a bonus/buff given the changes to shooting (notwithstanding that ranged attacks are still good)?
Do agree that many people are shiehorning 3rd ed lists into 4th and hoping!
Having a quick look through the successful lists at Adepticon popped a few patterns out for me. They seem to be largely meat and potatoes. Strong, heavy(not the unit type*) infantry that has either a ton of nerve to chew through (wretches etc.) or high quality anvils like hordes of ceremonial guard. The second contingent is what takes units off the board. Each army has several solid hammers and the few that rely on shooting have a ton of it (Rats and Halflings). Mark’s winning Rats had a mix of both and even the high ranking Halfling army clearly looks like it was built to soften things up with shooting and then rely on Grenadiers to pop units off the table.
Nightstalkers feel like they can do these things but just a bit worse. They have Scarecrow hordes but they are not as competitively priced as the Wretches or capable of standing on their own like the Shocktroops. Nightstalkers really just have Fiends as traditional heavy hammers but they need to take the Brew of Strength to push them into the same realm as Rhinocav etc. Soulflayers, Tormentors, and Reapers have their place but require a lot more finesse to get a few charges out of them without losing them to a cheeky flank.
Orc army review:
In September, I look at event data and determined the game was in a healthy state.
Today? It’s a little more complicated.
Thanks for the analysis.
The trend appears to go beyond the slowdown when we were waiting for the new edition.
I think that Mantic’s answer to the “waiting for my codex” sentiment (admittedly anecdotal) will be significant for the future of KoW.
Agreed. It’s hard to know because we don’t have data on other edition changes or even edition change data from other systems. But the decline in enthusiasm and participation is real. I’m optimistic it can be turned around over the next 6-12 months, but if the decline continues..
Here in the Northeast Region, our tournament attendance since 4E released has also been heavily impacted by the actions of the Trump Administration. As much as half of our player base is Canadian, and either not interested in braving the border crossing and ICE threats or can’t justify the heavy costs to fly across it (or both). And now the cost of gas is making the long drives to events more painful, let alone flights across regions.
This weekend I’m headed to the Orc Town GT, one of the gems in our region’s crown, and sign-ups are less than half what they would normally be. Unreal, and not entirely the new edition’s fault.
As an aside, the reason I’m not attending Masters this year does have more to do with the woeful state of the 4E meta than the economy … but both of them together is hard to overcome.
And then the weekend just gone saw two separate 20 strong UK events as well as the Asian Clash tournament?
Certainly in the UK there doesn’t seem to be a shortage of events being put on.
I miss those guys.
I get the impression (as a new player to the BC group) that similar issues apply in the PNW; though the West Coast appears to have fewer wargamers in general.
This was the impression I’d been getting anecdotally (including myself, I’m afraid), but I didn’t expect it show up so strongly in the data.
Hopefully the main issue is what Mantic can fix and they do it soon. Having momentum and current investment in a game keeps one playing and can be difficulty to regain once lost.
Thats an interesting insight. Boyz before Toyz!
I, naturally, look forward to the reviews for my armies. 
Which do you play? I’ll add them to the list.
That is awfully kind of you.
Dwarfs, nightstalkers and undead.
Interesting read.
I think the end of the old world really was a massive slice of the fuel that grew Kow as players found and introduced others to Kow. The rules made them stay.
Couple of thoughts
The variations in UK and US & Canada
The price of petrol/gasoline and the distances US players travel is going to impact more id say that in UK. Feels like this is coming through in the post comments.
Also I’m not much of an expert but is the local meta an impact for the US, it’s by most accounts more ranged and wonder with the changes in that phase making a few existing armies unplayable (along with having to learn a new mathhammer)
Could be a combo of both of needing to adjust armies and distances travelled means the tournament competitive players are partly unenthusiastic, hopefully they are playing casually.
The other thing entering my little brain is that mantic are really pushing towards new players, slow grow and this tailored more to new players are less likely to be jumping into tournaments, more likely casual players to start with.
Overall hopefully in time the current drop off is reversed as players get back into it and new players filter through to the tournaments.
Agreed. What’s hard to know is whether the fall off in tournament play is more than offset by an increase in garage gaming. I’m sure Mantic is tracking the model sales closely with 4E. I could see a scenario where the overall scene/number of players is increasing even if the tournament play has fallen off. Hard to say.
For me, I’ve actually really enjoyed changes in 4E on the whole. It plays cleaner and more intuitively. There are army balance issues with command orders that will be sorted, but the core rules seem improved, more elegant, and with fewer gotchas.
I hope their plan to get more new players than they lose old (already loyal) players works out, I’d like to see the edition finished before it becomes financially unviable to do so. The new rules are nice, but it needed more time to finish all the factions.