I first posted after the 2023 US Masters. Here we are, three years and 126 posts later. Hard to believe.
Any statistical questions you have out there that you want me to dig into? I’m always on the lookout for new angles on articles I could craft.
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Do newly painted units and models actually statistically die more easily or is it simply sod’s law?
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lol
Aka, are armies good because of one or two players, or is everyone winning with Ratkin and Goblins?
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A common l thing I see on Fanatics is something along the lines of “I thought 4th was supposed to eliminate spam, but now spam has gone up/every build is the same.”
I take a quick look. Tldr: this is probably true to some extent, but not necessarily a bad thing–there’s a difference between spamming high value flying hammers and spamming line infantry, and whether the spam we’re seeing is good spam or more of a philosophical question.
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Think things will slowly diversify once more armies get a proper v4 version - both with regards to units getting tweaked and an increase in the number of slot changing heroes?
If Rabble are seen as overly prevalent it might be they get the wretches treatment and lose a Trait keyword, thus limiting how they interact with commands & special rules?
Interesting to know from the event stats (if able) whether some of the duplication was down to armies running 2 battalions and doubling up on certain unit types.
If it’s cheap core being maxed out to get access to that second battalion (and thus more toys or a 3rd/4th copy of a wizard/war engine) then events limiting lists to just one might be worth considering (if deemed enough of an issue)?
Feel it’s actually really positive about the Basilea figures - as that is a sensible basis for an army both in terms of lore and in game. It’s certainly better than Julius plus 2 (now) regiments of elohi in every army.
Certainly do recall (probably your stats from a UK Clash preview!) that mid era 3rd/3.5 there were certain units that were an auto-take in multiples (ogre warlocks, FoA berserkers, phoenix etc).
Players will always find those units which are above the bell curve or give the most bang for the buck.
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Where is the difference? Why should spamming infantry and warmachines be “better” or more interesting?
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I don’t know that it necessarily is better—that’s the philosophical question I was trying to raise at the end. My analysis counts repetition as repetition, whether it’s 6 infantry regiments, 6 war engines, or 6 flying hammers.
Where I think there may be a meaningful distinction is what that repetition does to the game. Six rank-and-file infantry units generally create a battle line, interact with terrain/objectives, and can be approached from multiple directions. Six highly mobile hammers or other specialist pieces can potentially create a much more skewed matchup. But that’s a game-design judgment, not something the data in this article proves.
So I wouldn’t say “infantry spam = good, war-machine spam = bad.” I’d say the amount of spam and the kind of spam are two different questions. This article only really answers the first one: 4e has more repetition. Whether the repetition we’re getting produces better games is a much harder question.
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Whether it makes for more interesting games is open to debate, but it certainly looks pretty boring on the table.
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Will be interesting to see what the lists for UK Clash show, which are getting released at the weekend.
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I think it is something to be addressed in some future balancing. It feels like some builds for some factions are way better than other ways of playing that faction (e.g. goblin rabble spam). It was less this way in third edition. Not the end of the world and more balancing to be done, but I reckon the top 20 at clash will mainly be some obvious builds. I hope to be wrong and that we get something like the halflings last year!
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Clash lists have been released - wonder what the trends are?
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As I thought, it seems like quite a lot of spam lists (i.e. 4 to 5 or even more of the same unit). I haven’t actually counted so maybe it’s just confirmation bias. Then there is the smashy horde list (orcs are typical but others can do it), 4 or more hordes of melee 3+ crushing strength bricks with defence 5 and high nerve. Then there are the shooty lists. Plus a few that are different to these archetypes of course.
One, hopefully more useful, reflection is that the game was (so I hear) designed and balanced at 2000pts, but tournaments have stuck to 2300pts. I think 2000 would be better. Why? It would reduce the amounts of times people use a second regiment to spam a [2] to more than 2. It would mean a second battalion was really a tough choice. The alternative is, of course, to limit folk to one battalion. The issue there is that specialists get limited for no great reason. Again though, that’s because the lists are 300pts higher in value than they perhaps should be.
Just my opinion, happy to be shot down. I think playing at 2000pts would make for “better” list building.
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I’m out of town over the holiday weekend but will try to take a look when I get back.
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A quick data dive:
UK Clash of Kings 2026: What to Watch in the Released Lists – Data & Dice
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Good stuff, thanks.
So there’s at least 20 armies with 2 battalions (they have two warlords), plus a couple of others that have 5+ specialists and presume that most of the goblin lists are doubles?
Artefact spend is interesting - looks like more people have invested heavily in them that previously? Wonder if that is a knock on effect of the increase in points (and the more restricted manner in which they get chosen) of Champions? The cheap BSB or single spell wizard aren’t as viable now, so extras go on items?
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Presumption on goblin lists is not right. There’s only six, I think half are one battalion but stand to be corrected.
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Thanks for summarizing so much.
I’m very surprised that several armies are missing.
No Basilea, no Twilight Kin, no Abyssal Dwarfs, no Trident Realms for example.
Given that there are 160 participants and Basilea and Trident Realms being fully released (Trident Realms with a very nice range), I would expect every army is present.
So this does not look like players wildly experimenting with a new faction. There is already a reasonably clear idea of how Xirkaali should be assembled.
Well, they are one of the armies with the smallest variety.
13 units, just 3 in Special and 5 (two of them warmachines) in Support. I don’t think this is very surprising, there are not many options.
They are quite comparable with Ogres.
The summary doesn’t detail the full faction spread, just the most popular.
Certainly Basileans and AD took massive drop from 2025 - 9 & 11 respectively out of 203 lists (4.4% & 5.4%)
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Thanks, just realized my mistake watching Page’s and Adam’s show.
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